Sports betting is the activity of predicting sports results and placing a wager on the outcome. Considering this line this to be a disclaimer to bet responsibly or avoid it all together, I have made a 18.53% profit till date, using the Top 5 Football Leagues Match Predictions. It may not sound like much but its profit nonetheless in a system where only 11% of gamblers end up with a profit. Even professional sports bettors rarely sustain a long-term winning percentage higher than 55 percent, and it’s often as low as 53 or 54 percent. You are not going to be right 100% of the times no matter what the data and any prediction model says (like our example of Barcelona vs Read Sociedad).
The best way to bet is betting to avoid losing money than betting to win money. In the long run you will eventually end up making a small profit which is far better than a gambling debt. In the previous post I have disused what the Top 5 Football League Match Predictor does. In this post we will delve into how to avoid losing money while betting via using the League Predictor.
How to use Top 5 Football Leagues Match Predictions for Betting?
- Bet only on a set of very specific matchups
- To pick these specific matchups, compare the betting platform odds with Football Top 5 Leagues Weekend Prediction
- Bet only on those matches where both the platforms are in alignment. This way you have a strong chance of not losing money
- Bet on 2 out of 3 outcomes. This is imperative so your chances of losing becomes slimmer
Refer to the above ‘Aston Villa vs Burnley (17th December 2020)‘ fixture in English Premiere League to see what is meant by betting on 2 out of 3 outcomes.
In the same image, how much to bet on each outcome is also mentioned. The calculation for that is very simple and is described in this post.
In Aston Villa vs Burney matchup, there was a 76% prediction of a home win and 18% prediction of a draw. The odds on bet365.com were in alignment to the prediction
Similarly for Sheffield United vs Manchester United, there was a 83% prediction of a away win and 18% prediction of a draw. The odds on bet365.com were in alignment to the prediction
So I would consider these matchups as a safe bet, unlike the Barcelona vs Real Sociedad matchup where odds on bet365.com were favoring Barcelona and my model was predicting Real Sociedad
Picking the best '2 out of 3 Outcomes'
Now the question comes of how much to bet. Always remember the first rule of gambling: Wager only what you can lose. I have decided that number to be $150.
- Betting on the team which is predicted to win both by the betting platform as well as the prediction model will lead to very little profit.
- Betting on the team which is predicted to lose by both platforms makes no sense whatsoever.
- Betting on a draw is the safest choice.
Betting on two outcomes. 1. Favourite team to Win, and 2. Draw
In Aston Villa vs Burney matchup,
- odds for Aston Villa (favourite team) win was 1.7. It means if you bet $100, you would get a return of $170
- odds for Draw was 3.8. It means if you bet $100, you would get a return of $380
- odds for Burnley (least-liked team) win was 4.75. It means if you bet $100, you would get a return of $475
Ideal case scenario to ensure that you do not lose is to bet on Aston Villa win and Draw
- Amount to bet on Aston Villa Win = Total Betting Amount/Odds of Aston Villa Winning = $150/1.7 = $88.23 –> Bet $89
This will ensure that you do not lose money in case there isn’t a draw.
- Amount to be bet on a Draw = Total Betting Amount – Amount bet on Aston Villa Win = $150 – $89 = $61 –> Bet $61
This is where you make money. On Draws!!!
Aston Villa vs Burnley eventually ended in a draw (18%) even though Aston Villa was the superior team throughout the 90 minutes. If I had taken the safest choice of Aston Villa, I would have lost $150. If I had hoped for a miracle with Burnley’s win, I would have lost $150. If I had just bet $150 on the Draw I would have pocketed a profit of ($570 – $150 = ) $420. A net profit of just $81.80 (54.53%) definitely sounds low compared to $420, but its better than a loss of $150.
Draws are where the money is. Sounds stupid right? I assure you it is not.
1/4 games in Football Top 5 Leagues ends in a draw. That is a massive 25% games ending in a draw where you will be making the money. In the rest of 75% games, you will play safe and ensure that you do not lose money.
Using the above mentioned strategy you are minimizing your risk of losing money. Bet Responsibly by comparing Top 5 Football Leagues Match Predictions with betting platforms.